Ching: Hawaii Crime on the Rise
On a video posted on PBS Hawaii‘s website, candidate for Honolulu city prosecutor Darwin Ching said: “What we’re seeing, although the national trend is going down, in Hawaii, crime is going up. Especially the property crime.” (The video was posted on Sept. 2.)
The comments came as a slap intended for one of Ching’s opponents, Franklin “Don” Pacarro, Jr., who has stated on several occasions that Honolulu is the safest big city in America. Civil Beat reported on that claim in a separate Fact Check.
Let’s set aside for a moment that Ching is running to become Honolulu prosecutor, not Hawaii prosecutor. If victorious, he’d only be responsible for combatting crime on Oahu.
But in making his case for his candidacy, he’s telling residents of the state that crime is on the rise, contrary to the national trend.
True?
Not really, no.
We first checked to see whether Ching was accurate when he said that crime in the United States is dropping. We looked at the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports going back to 1989. A screenshot of the FBI’s national data is below.
The table looks at the volume and rate of crime per 100,000 inhabitants in the U.S. In every single category, crime rates have fallen since 1989, confirming at least part of Ching’s comment.
To see how Hawaii crime has compared, we again looked at the FBI’s crime reports. This time we found mixed results. The statistics are listed in the table below and cover the years from 2000 to 2008 (the most recent completed report for an individual state).
| Year | Population | Violent Crime | Murder | Rape | Aggravated Assault | Property Crime | Burglary | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 1,211,537 | 2,954 | 35 | 346 | 1,450 | 60,033 | 10,665 | |
| 2001 | 1,224,398 | 3,117 | 32 | 409 | 1,534 | 62,830 | 11,162 | |
| 2002 | 1,244,898 | 3,262 | 24 | 372 | 1,656 | 71,976 | 12,722 | |
| 2003 | 1,257,608 | 3,400 | 22 | 367 | 1,843 | 65,867 | 11,409 | |
| 2004 | 1,262,840 | 3,213 | 33 | 333 | 1,903 | 60,525 | 10,827 | |
| 2005 | 1,275,194 | 3,253 | 24 | 343 | 1,885 | 61,115 | 9,792 | |
| 2006 | 1,285,498 | 3,615 | 21 | 355 | 2,096 | 54,382 | 8,709 | |
| 2007 | 1,283,388 | 3,501 | 22 | 326 | 2,048 | 54,228 | 9,097 | |
| 2008 | 1,288,198 | 3,512 | 25 | 365 | 2,036 | 46,004 | 9,378 | |
| Percent Change* | +6.3 | +18.9 | -28.6 | +5.5 | +40.4 | -23.4 | -12.1 |
(*Percent of change from 2000 to 2009)
Looking at these statistics, there are two areas, Violent Crime and Aggravated Assault, where Hawaii crime rose more than the population. There was one area, Rape, where crime grew, but at a slower rate than the population. Violent Crime grew by 18.9 percent and Aggravated Assault rose a sharp 40.4 percent since 2000. Rape went up 5.5 percent but the population has risen by more than that, 6.3 percent.
On the flip side, Murder, Property Crime and Burglary all dropped since 2000. Murder fell 28.6 percent, Property Crime dropped by 23.4 percent and Burglary by 12.1 percent.
It seems fair to say that Hawaii crime is actually decreasing, albeit not to the extent it is nationally. While there are some areas where “crime is going up” in Hawaii, as Ching says, it is not entirely accurate to say that the state is defying national trends.
But perhaps Ching was speaking about Honolulu, when he said Hawaii. Maybe he misspoke.
The table below lists the crime trends in Honolulu, also gathered from the FBI crime reports since 2000.
| Year | Population | Violent Crime | Murder | Rape | Aggravated Assault | Property Crime | Burglary | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 883,621 | 2,302 | 20 | 240 | 1,058 | 44,357 | 6,946 | |
| 2001 | 885,605 | 2,453 | 20 | 293 | 1,141 | 45,989 | 7,340 | |
| 2002 | 900,433 | 2,601 | 18 | 304 | 1,207 | 54,670 | 8,932 | |
| 2003 | 905,301 | 2,606 | 15 | 266 | 1,336 | 48,306 | 7,967 | |
| 2004 | 906,589 | 2,507 | 26 | 222 | 1,441 | 44,121 | 7,240 | |
| 2005 | 908,521 | 2,570 | 15 | 234 | 1,480 | 42,383 | 6,209 | |
| 2006 | 912,693 | 2,745 | 17 | 229 | 1,543 | 38,310 | 5,482 | |
| 2007 | 905,903 | 2,613 | 19 | 226 | 1,425 | 37,197 | 5,777 | |
| 2008 | 906,349 | 2,575 | 18 | 203 | 1,426 | 31,781 | 6,370 | |
| 2009 | 907,124 | 2,537 | 14 | 243 | 1,411 | 33,375 | 5,999 | |
| Percent Change* | +2.7 | +10.2 | -30.0 | +1.3 | +33.4 | -24.8 | -13.6 |
(*Percent of change from 2000 to 2009)
Again, we have jumbled results: Violent Crime, Rape and Aggravated Assault all rose since 2000, but rape grew at a slower rate than the population of the city. Violent crime jumped 10.6 percent, Aggravated Assault by 33.4 percent, rape by 1.3 percent. The population grew by 2.7 percent.
On the other hand, Murder, Property Crime and Burglary all dropped 30, 24.8 and 13.6 percent, respectively.
Ching singled out property crime specifically as a problem in “Hawaii,” but in both Hawaii and Honolulu, it actually went down.
So, while Ching isn’t totally wrong in saying that Hawaii’s crime trend is going up, he’s leaving a false impression, especially about property crimes.
