It’s a truth that most city officials don’t like to talk about: The future of Honolulu’s $5.5 billion rail project rests in one person’s hands.

Transit officials continue to move forward with the project, but they aren’t allowed to break ground until the governor signs off on the city’s final environmental review. The Federal Transit Administration gave the go-ahead on that document in June.

Gov. Linda Lingle is not expected to accept the document before she leaves office next week. She has expressed strong concerns about the project’s cost. Lingle launched an independent financial review in September, eight months after announcing her intention to do so.

“The governor is obviously not going to have it before the end of her term,” Honolulu Mayor Peter Carlisle said last week. “It will depend on who the next governor is. I mean, we know (Democrat gubernatorial candidate) Neil Abercrombie is full guns forward.”

Abercrombie’s support for the project appears clear. He takes credit for helping secure federal funding for the proposed system, and reiterates his position on his campaign website.

“Rail is too important a project for Honolulu and for the State of Hawaii for it to fail because of a personal political agenda,” Abercrombie wrote.

At the time that was posted — February 2010 — the comments appeared to be directed at former Mayor Mufi Hannemann, who lost the Democratic primary to Abercrombie in September. As mayor, Hannemann helped resuscitate the rail project after several failed attempts by previous administrations to build a rail system in Honolulu over the decades.

Abercrombie’s current opponent, Republican James “Duke” Aiona, comes from a different political climate regarding rail. As lieutenant governor under Lingle, Ainoa’s position on rail sounds a lot like his boss’ take on the project.

“I don’t believe that the contingencies that they built into it are satisfactory enough to make this an economically feasible project,” Aiona said at a news conference in August. “Until I can get a satisfactory answer as to how are we going to maintain it, I gotta question the financial aspect of this whole project and the wisdom of going forward.”

That’s what Lingle has been asking, too. The outgoing governor insists her financial analysis is not holding up the project, but that it coincides with a meticulous review process by the Hawaii Department of Health’s Office of Environmental Quality Control. She wrote something to that effect in a Sept. 2010 statement about the financial review.

“While the OEQC is continuing its legally required review of the EIS, my Administration is also performing the financial due diligence to make certain Hawaii taxpayers can afford this multi-billion project – including the cost to operate, maintain and sustain the system well into the future,” Lingle wrote. “To ask me to sign the EIS at this point in time is inappropriate and premature.”

Earlier this month, Carlisle and other city officials traveled to Washington D.C. to meet with Federal Transit Authority officials on the project. Councilmember Ikaika Anderson was there, and said part of the purpose of the trip was — at least in part — to alleviate federal officials’ worries about the future of rail in Honolulu.

In addition to electing a new governor and a new mayor, the Honolulu City Council will have five new members in the coming months.

“FTA Administrator (Peter) Rogoff was concerned about the changing administrations,” Anderson said. “He was also concerned about changes on the City Council. He said he was relieved to know that this (new mayoral) administration will likewise support mass transit.”

Carlisle said he’s confident that anyone who looks closely at the rail plan will realize it’s “an extremely impressive enterprise.” He said the FTA is tracking Honolulu’s progress particularly closely because of the city’s history of starting then stopping rail projects.

“The federal authorities are not going to allow us to be anything other than upfront with the money and on-time and on-target to the greatest extent possible,” Carlisle said. “We are accountable to them. They know it and we know it. They are making sure we’re doing everything right with your federal money and we’re going to make sure we’re doing everything right with your city and county money.”

Carlisle said, once a new governor is elected, he looks forward to collaborating with that person to move the rail project forward. Councilmember Anderson said, for now, rail supporters are waiting to see what happens on election day.

“Abercrombie has stated publicly that he will sign the FEIS,” Anderson said. “Aiona, I just don’t know. Wait and see who gets elected. From what I’ve known of Congressman Abercrombie, if he says something — whether he’s going to do something or not going to do something — he sticks to what he says.”

Even if the new governor promptly accepts the FEIS, there are more hurdles the city faces before rail is built. There are permits to obtain and promised federal monies to secure.

Plus, it’s likely rail opponents will file lawsuits in an attempt to stop the project. Even if those suits ultimately fail, further delays to the project may hurt funding prospects.

DISCUSSION Will Honolulu ever get a rail system? Call it like you see it in our conversation on rail.