A fascinating new poll today from the Honolulu Star-Advertiser shows support for the controversial rail project has dried up significantly in the last year.

Today, 43 percent of registered voters polled say the city should proceed with construction and 53 percent said it should stop now. The margin of error was 4.2 percent, as 549 Oahu residents were polled. Just nine months ago in response to the same question, 49 percent said yes and 45 percent said no.

Cliff Slater chalks up the change to the growing realization that traffic will be worse with rail in 2030 than it is today.

The poll isn’t going to stop the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation from beginning heavy construction within weeks. But the results bode well for Ben Cayetano‘s rail-focused mayoral campaign, and might have an impact on the three Honolulu City Council races expected to be competitive.

Those polled in Leeward Oahu still support the project. That area includes District 1 (currently held by Tom Berg, who will face heavy opposition) and District 9 (soon to be vacated by the term-limited Nestor Garcia). It’s not clear if District 7 (Romy Cachola is also term-limited) falls into the “H-1 Ewa Corridor” or if it’s in the “Urban Honolulu” zone, described by Star-Ad columnist Richard Borreca as starting from Moanalua.

Rail contractor and former journalist Doug Carlson quickly blogged that the results can’t be taken seriously, noting that the Jan. 26-Feb. 5 telephone poll began just a week after Cayetano announced his candidacy. Carlson writes:

What did the Star-Advertiser expect? It’s almost beyond belief that the newspaper in this city could overlook the timing issue and commission this survey when the results were so predictable. Mr. Cayetano’s entry into the mayoral race isn’t mentioned in the story until its final paragraph!

That story (subscription required) includes some demographics, and Borreca’s column (subscription required) summarizes them: “rail is least liked by voters who are Republican, white, Filipino or making less than $50,000. Rail’s biggest supporters are Democrats, Japanese and wealthy.”

One interesting demographic not highlighted in either piece but mentioned in the footnotes of the article was the prevalence of old folks in the poll — just 26 percent of those surveyed were 44 or younger, compared to 28 percent that were 65 or older and another 18 percent between 55 and 64. Two-thirds were called on a landline, and one-third on a cell phone.

The crosstabs might shed some light on that, if the newspaper releases them when it’s done publishing stories about the poll. Ward Research surveyed voters statewide and asked about “the U.S. Senate and House races, the mayoral election, job performance ratings for top officials, and gambling,” according to the paper. Those stories have yet to appear in print.

Read both pieces (subscription required): Rail support falls (article) and Anti-rail poll results to take politicos, voters on wild ride (column)