Republicans celebrated last year when former Hawaii Gov.Linda Lingledecided to run for Senate, giving the GOP — in its eyes, at least — a rare pick-up opportunity in one of the bluest of blue states. Republicans point to Lingle’s two gubernatorial victories in a state that hadn’t elected a Republican governor since 1959, but Democrats dismiss the notion that a Republican can win a Senate race in Hawaii in a presidential year. After voters cast their ballots in the primary on Saturday, Lingle will finally have a Democratic opponent — and both parties will start to get a better sense of how competitive the Senate contest might be.

Democrat Rep. Mazie Hirono is heavily favored in the Democratic primary. Former Rep. Ed Case‘s campaign remains confident, pointing to the results of a poll (which doesn’t meet The Hotline‘s standards for publication) released this week showing a tight race. But all the other recent surveys, as well as analysis from experts on both sides of the aisle, point to a sizable win for Hirono.

—Chad Blair