NYT’s Blog: U.S. Senate Control In 2014 ‘A Tossup’

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That comes from Nate Silver’s Political Calculus. Excerpt:

This weekend’s announcement by the former governor of Montana, Brian Schweitzer, that he would not seek that state’s Democratic nomination for Senate represents the latest in a series of favorable developments for Republicans as they seek control of the chamber. …

A race-by-race analysis of the Senate, in fact, suggests that Republicans might now be close to even-money to win control of the chamber after next year’s elections. Our best guess, after assigning probabilities of the likelihood of a G.O.P. pickup in each state, is that Republicans will end up with somewhere between 50 and 51 Senate seats after 2014, putting them right on the threshold of a majority. …

Note: Silver says Hawaii’s Senate seat falls in the “Safe Democrat” column, with the local GOP given only a 5 percent chance of taking it away. But Silver’s prediction about a possible GOP-controlled Senate would no doubt have repercussions for a blue state like ours.

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Courtesy Ron Cogswel.

—Chad Blair

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