The latest roundup of gubernatorial elections throughout the country by respected political expert Larry Sabato has put Hawaii’s governor’s race in the “toss up” category.

This because Sabato prognosticates a primary loss by incumbent Gov. Neil Abercrombie could open the seat to a GOP takeover come November.

Gov. Neil Abercrombie points to Sen. David Ige during the morning debate.

PF Bentley/Civil Beat

That change (from “leans Democrat”) has Politico paying attention too. In its latest weekly ratings roundup, the news site says Hawaii’s governor’s race is turning out to be one of the biggest surprises in the country this year.

“In the Aloha State, Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) is in serious trouble in his party primary against state Sen. David Ige,” Politico says. “But even if he gets to November, Abercrombie could lose to his 2010 general election opponent, ex-Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona, in part because of the independent candidacy of Mufi Hannemann, the former Democratic mayor of Honolulu.”

A Civil Beat poll in June showed Ige with a healthy 11 point lead over Abercrombie. Earlier this week, a poll done for the League of Conservation Voters gave Ige a 10 point lead over the incumbent governor.