While Super Tuesday’s prizes were being awarded to candidates on the mainland — Texas goes for Cruz! Clinton Takes Massachusetts! Trump wins Virginia! — the biggest decision day of the 2016 presidential race left Hawaii with its own list of political winners. And losers.

Our state is preparing for its own Republican presidential caucus next week and the Democratic caucus at the end of the month. Hawaii is positioned to make a difference in both races, though how significant is yet to be determined.

On the Republican side, four states (Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and Maine) plus Puerto Rico will vote between now and next Tuesday, when GOP voters in Idaho, Michigan and Mississippi join Hawaii Republicans in caucuses or at the polls. Given the still competitive nature of the race, those nine state/commonwealth delegate totals can play a substantial role in determining whether the race remains competitive by mid-month or whether the nomination is in Donald Trump’s pocket.

Hawaii’s 19 delegates will be awarded proportionately and could make a difference for, say, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, who has an active ground operation here and whose politics align with those of the social conservatives who seem ascendant in the party.

Though the voting Tuesday took place in 11 other states and American Samoa, there were still plenty of winners and losers in Hawaii.
Though the voting Tuesday took place in 11 other states and American Samoa, there were still winners and losers in Hawaii. DonkeyHotey/Flickr

On the Democratic side, more delegates are at stake — 34 — but might arguably be less relevant: With Hillary Clinton’s fat delegate lead likely to expand further in coming weeks with big states like Michigan, Florida, Ohio and Illinois up for grabs, the nomination may be all but sealed by our caucus date, March 26.

But in advance of either caucus, a range of Hawaii public officials are carrying either big smiles or troublesome baggage from Super Tuesday’s results.

Winners

U.S. Sens. Brian Schatz and Mazie Hirono came out early for Clinton and have stumped for her in key states that have already voted this presidential cycle.
U.S. Sens. Brian Schatz and Mazie Hirono came out early for Clinton and have stumped for her in key states that have already voted this presidential cycle. U.S. Sen. Mazie Hirono

Sens. Brian Schatz and Mazie Hirono; Rep. Mark Takai; Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell. Three members of Hawaii’s all-blue federal delegation and the mayor of Hawaii’s largest city got on board early and enthusiastically with Clinton, and their political calculus seems to be paying off: As of Thursday afternoon, Clinton has locked up 1,052 total delegates, with U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders far behind at 427.

The myth of Clinton’s lead being solely attributable to superdelegates like Schatz, Hirono and Takai is just that, by the way. Winning seven states and American Samoa on Tuesday, Clinton has now earned 596 pledged delegates to Sanders’ 407 — a 189-delegate lead that would be all but insurmountable in any race in which the leading candidate doesn’t entirely collapse.

But there is no doubt that the early endorsements of these four and other elected Democrats across the country has helped clear a national glide path for the former Secretary of State that now seems wide and smooth.

In the event of a Clinton presidency, those endorsements and the work that Schatz, Hirono, Takai and Caldwell have put in for Clinton could be beneficial for Hawaii interests over the next four years.

Former Govs. George Ariyoshi, Ben Cayetano and John Waihee. It’s not often that the endorsements of former governors make much of a difference, but when packaged together as these three were last weekend around the theme of “the importance of caucusing for Hillary on March 26th,” it matters.

All three led solid statewide campaign organizations back in the day, pieces of which may still be available to be mobilized in support of a more effective ground game. Getting the state’s leading political machine more heavily invested in Clinton will be appreciated not only by the national campaign, but by down-ticket Democrats (to the degree that Republicans mount competitive races anywhere in Hawaii).

“When it comes to who will be the best leader for Hawaii this presidential race,” former Gov. John Waihee said Sunday at the official opening of Hillary for Hawaii headquarters, “you see the three of us uniting because the one thing we have in common is that we understand leadership.”

Losers

Rep. Tulsi Gabbard. Over the past week, Gabbard has been Sanders’ most enthusiastic surrogate, parlaying her significant media profile into exposure on all the major TV networks, cable news operations, political talk shows and newspapers as she contended Sanders would be best at resisting “interventionist wars.”

By the time Tuesday’s results were in, however, the argument sounded more like annoying talking points in support of a candidacy going nowhere. Worse, Gabbard had to resign her neutral position as vice chair of the Democratic National Committee to make them, leading some to wonder whether her political ear had gone tone deaf.

As with the Schatz, Hirono and Takai endorsements, this one will leave a residue with possible ramifications for Hawaii later on. Behind the scenes, the aggravation of Team Clinton with Gabbard is said to be substantial and not likely to abate. Particularly since Gabbard’s Tuesday night messaging included the idea that “a lot of people” had ominously warned her against endorsing Sanders, but she courageously did it anyway.

That may not mean much to Gabbard, who has repeatedly poked President Obama in the eye over the past year, mostly over his refusal to use the “Muslim” label to describe certain terrorists and terrorist groups. But Obama was in the second half of his final term when that criticism began; Gabbard may be looking at as many as eight years of Clinton leadership, which is a long time to be out in the cold.

Gov. David Ige. Like members of Hawaii’s federal delegation, Ige is also a superdelegate. He has had the opportunity to get behind a candidate for months. But the first-term governor is staying out of it until after the Hawaii caucuses March 26, his office confirms.

Ige might have completely honorable reasons for remaining neutral, among them, wanting the people’s sentiments to be fairly weighed without his finger on the scale. But with the race now having moved decidedly in Clinton’s favor, time is running out on his ability to have much influence in deciding the party’s presidential nominee

Come March 27, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where anyone will care which candidate Ige endorses.

Hawaii GOP Leadership, State Rep. Bob McDermott. State Republican Party Vice Chair Barbara Marumoto and former Chair Pat Saiki are among the party leaders who lined up behind Florida Gov. Jeb Bush during his disastrous campaign run, which mercifully ended in late February.

Social conservative headline grabber McDermott didn’t fare any better, first endorsing Rick Santorum, who ended his campaign on Feb. 3, before coming out late last month for Cruz, proclaiming himself “honored to be on board with a man of decency, class, principle and courage.”

Cruz’s fiery brand of populist social conservatism might appeal to some of the same voters who adamantly opposed Hawaii’s marriage equality law. But that crowd, which McDermott serves as unofficial leader, wasn’t able to convert its passion into any electoral success in 2014. And its “pro family” interests may not matter in a party primary now dominated by Trump’s cult of personality and penchant for attracting both new voters and the disenchanted party faithful to his traveling carnival act.

Just as problematic for Cruz and McDermott: The only candidate that the GOP establishment seems to hate more than Trump is Cruz, who is absolutely loathed by his fellow Senate Republicans and seems to have little chance of being the party’s alternative choice.

If Trump takes Hawaii’s GOP caucuses without the backing of any party leaders or elected Republicans, that could be painful indeed for a party organization that often struggles for relevance in a state entirely dominated by Democrats.

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