With so much at stake, the race to represent fire-torn Lahaina and the rest of West Maui in the state House is shaping up to be one of this election’s tightest and most unique contests.

House District 14 has gone Democrat for decades. But its two-term incumbent, Rep. Elle Cochran, traded teams in March and is running as a Republican. And one of the community’s most visible advocates in the recovery from the 2023 wildfires, Pa’ele Kiakona, has secured major public worker union endorsements as a Green Party candidate.

It’s left the Democratic seat wide open for the Aug. 8 primary, which happens to fall on the three-year anniversary of the fires that killed 102 people and razed most of Lahaina. Sne Patel, president of the LahainaTown Action Committee; Ashley Olson, a longtime teacher at Lahainaluna High School; and Kanamu Balinbin, a local business owner and community advocate, will compete for the spot to advance to the Nov. 3 general election against Cochran and Kiakona, who are both unopposed in the primary.

The political establishment of the district — which includes Lahaina, Kapalua and Olowalu — has been losing the public’s trust for years, a shift that has only accelerated since the 2023 disaster, said Beth Fukumoto, a political commentator and former Republican and Democratic member of the state House. Regardless, whoever becomes the Democratic candidate is likely to be a serious contender in the race, she said, buoyed by party affiliation.

“Anytime you have a lot of disruption and people feel like the government has failed them in some way or another, you have this ability to create this populist anger,” Fukumoto said. “If the person who comes out of the Democratic primary is pretty progressive and open about wanting to do things differently, then that could be a game-changer. Then basically people can get both a Democrat and somebody who wants to sort of ruffle some feathers and make change.” 

Since the fire, West Maui residents have been unified by their shared grief and divided by their conflicting visions of a rebuilt Lahaina. Only about 200 of the nearly 2,000 homes and businesses that were destroyed have been rebuilt, county data shows, and many people have been disappointed by the local and state governments’ handling of recovery efforts. At the same time, the community has had to grapple with an unprecedented housing shortage, widespread mental health issues and complicated questions about how climate change influences plans to rebuild.

Cochran, a fire survivor herself, joined many other West Maui residents in criticizing the state’s Democratic leadership on their handling of wildfire recovery efforts when she explained her decision to become a Republican and distance herself from the party in power earlier this year. She has been criticized for her unprecedented absence rate — she missed 51 out of 60 floor sessions in 2025 — which she has defended by saying her presence was more valuable on the ground in Lahaina than at the Capitol. 

“People in the district can look at what has happened in the last few years and point to a lot of specific instances where they feel like they’ve been let down, and I think Elle is good at harnessing that anger,” Fukumoto said. “But I think that the fact that she is the government now also is something that’s going to work against her. There’s only so much anti-government stuff you can do when you actually are somebody that had the power to do something.”

Despite Cochran’s incumbent advantage, she likely faces more of an uphill battle than Kiakona, who has gained widespread recognition both locally and across the country for his highly visible, on-the-ground community advocacy and volunteer efforts with Lahaina Strong, according to Fukumoto and other political observers. 

Powerful unions including the Hawai‘i Government Employees Association and the Maui division of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union have endorsed Kiakona, decisions which could signal a growing desire for change even outside of West Maui, according to Colin Moore, a political analyst at the University of Hawai‘i Mānoa. It is likely the first time HGEA, which represents nearly 40,000 public and private sector employees, has ever endorsed a Green Party candidate, analysts said.

“Not only does this give his candidacy real legitimacy, it shows that one of the most powerful interests in the state has a sense that there is this appetite among the electorate — certainly in that district, and maybe in others — for candidates who are less traditional, who are more willing to criticize the establishment,” Moore said. “That’s probably where there’s statewide significance. It shows that one of the most powerful interest groups is experimenting with different types of candidates who represent less traditional views on policy.”

‘Historically Significant’

The public’s growing dissatisfaction with the political establishment has not gone unnoticed by Patel, Olson and Balinbin, the three Democratic candidates.

“Maybe the biggest challenge right now is that we have to rebuild the trust with each other and with the state and county,” Patel said. “It’s been a while since I think this many people have decided to put their name out there for this particular race, and I think the interest that you’re seeing and why you have a Democratic primary with three individuals is because there’s a lot at stake.”

Patel said he had years of experience working with people who disagree with each other, both in his role as the longtime president of the LahainaTown Action Committee and as a member of various community groups and commissions. On Thursday, he announced endorsements from four labor organizations: the Operative Plasterers and Cement Masons International Association Local 630, Teamsters Local 996, SMART Local 293 and the International Union of Painters and Allied Trades District Council 50.

Balinbin, a local business owner who was born and raised in Lahaina and who operates a community hub at Pōhaku Park, said he was disappointed in the state government’s handling of the fires and recovery efforts.

“It just got to the point where I felt like if a disaster strikes and it’s the state people that are going to make the calls, then that’s where I want to work,” said Balinbin, who was defeated by Cochran in the 2024 Democratic Primary and previously ran for county office. 

While he is running as a member of Hawaiʻi’s ruling party, Balinbin said he stands out from other politicians because he and his team “are regular people who just love our community so much.”

Olson was unavailable for an interview.

In interviews and campaign materials, all three Democratic candidates cited housing affordability, economic recovery and education as pillars of their campaigns.

The candidate elected by voters in the primary will, in some ways, be the safest choice in the general election, Moore said, but they will also face the challenge of representing the party most closely associated with the state’s political establishment in a district that has grown increasingly anti-establishment.

“We can’t count them out,” he said. “It will almost certainly be a competitive three-way general election, and I’m not sure when the last time that has happened.”

While Valley Isle politics has always been unique, Moore said, this race is unusual even by Maui standards.

“There’s just all of these unique factors that have gone into creating these circumstances that I don’t see being repeated anywhere else,” he said. “It could be historically significant.”