UPDATE: This report has been updated to reflect a statement issued on Wednesday by the paper’s lead author, the complete version of which is attached at the bottom of this story.

The author of a paper on Hawaiʻi’s energy system published by the University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization is temporarily withdrawing the paper to take a closer look at its findings with additional input from various stakeholders. 

Titled “Hawaiʻi’s Electricity Future: Three Findings on Solar Reform, Enhanced Geothermal, and the JERA LNG Proposal,” the paper concluded that Oʻahu doesn’t need any additional power plants – fueled by liquefied natural gas and any other fuel – to keep the lights on.

Solar energy would be a better, less expensive option for ratepayers, the report concluded. And the cost of solar could be driven down further if policymakers adopted regulatory and land-use changes to ease the soft costs of developing solar farms.

The report, which also discussed the option of using geothermal energy on Oʻahu, immediately drew criticism from proponents of two power plant proposals. 

Hawaiian Electric Co. Inc., which is pursuing an upgrade to its Waiau power plant on Oʻahu, pointed out that the report used outdated 2018 data on the price of electricity produced by industrial solar farms. Gov. Josh Green, who has been promoting a proposal by Tokyo’s JERA Co., Inc., to build a power plant fueled with LNG called the report “baloney.”

Economist Michael Roberts, who co-authored the study with doctoral student Ethan Hartley, is a UH professor who focuses on agriculture policies, the effects of climate change on agriculture, commodity pricing and water.

Last week, Roberts published a correction to the “Hawaii’s Electricity Future” study, thanking HECO for pointing out the error in the solar pricing data but said at the time that the error didn’t affect the report’s overall findings.

On Tuesday, the university announced Roberts was temporarily withdrawing the paper pending a further review.

“He intends to correct identified errors, complete a comprehensive review, seek additional input and feedback from stakeholders and republish a revised edition,” UH said. 

In a lengthy statement released Wednesday, Roberts outlined a number of problems with the report, starting with an error and his attempt to correct it in an updated report. 

In the initial report, Roberts reported the price to develop big solar farms at 8 to 12 cents per kilowatt-hour. But that was the price in 2018. The current price is now significantly higher, at 21 to 23 cents. Then, when trying to correct the error and update the report, Roberts said he compounded the error by using AI-hallucinated data. 

Roberts also conflated projected prices of mainland solar with actual prices, which are higher than the report said. He said the report also overstated the cost of JERA’s LNG project. 

“Some of the errors we found had made the case against the LNG project look stronger than the corrected data support,” he wrote. “We are correcting those too, in the open, because the standard is accuracy, not advocacy.”

Jim Kelly, HECO’s vice president of government and community relations and corporate communications, applauded the move to withdraw the report.

“We appreciate them taking a look at this and considering the questions we and others raised,” Kelly said. 

Green also supported the decision.

“UHERO’s role is to provide the evidence and analysis that decision-makers and the public need, not to advocate for particular outcomes.”

University of Hawaiʻi

UHERO also said it would review its publication policies in light of the matter. 

“Like most UHERO reports and policy briefs, this report was independently produced by its authors,” UHERO’s executive director and professor of economics Carl Bonham said in a statement.

“However, that important distinction was not made as clearly as it should have been when the report was released. We are updating how we identify and present independently authored work so there is no ambiguity that the findings and conclusions are those of the authors and do not represent an institutional position of UHERO.”

Under Bonham’s leadership, UHERO has become a major source of unbiased information about Hawaiʻi’s economy over the last decade, publishing a steady stream of reports on subjects such as housing affordability, energy, health care and education.

UHERO’s quarterly forecasts of Hawaiʻi’s economy, produced by numerous experts from various fields, provide a multi-faceted snapshot of what’s going on in the state, without taking a political stance. UH highlighted UHERO’s apolitical approach in its statement on Monday.

“UHERO does not take positions on policy questions,” the statement said. “UHERO’s role is to provide the evidence and analysis that decision-makers and the public need, not to advocate for particular outcomes.”

The statement also embraced UHERO’s role in public policy discourse.

“UHERO reports regularly address issues of statewide importance, and it is essential that they meet the highest standards of accuracy and transparency,” UH said. “Public confidence depends on those standards being consistently upheld.” 

The study comes at a critical time for Hawaiʻi. State law requires all electricity sold in the state to be produced using renewable resources by 2045. While solar and storage will produce the bulk of the electricity, power plants burning renewable fuels are expected to be part of the mix. Both HECO and JERA have proposed fuel-flexible generators for Oʻahu that could use oil or natural gas until 2045.

Critics have questioned the idea of investing billions of dollars into the plants. Roberts’ report was important because it concluded Oʻahu didn’t need those power plants at all. Roberts was not available for comment, but issued a statement on Wednesday.

Civil Beat’s coverage of climate change and the environment is supported by The Healy Foundation, the Marisla Fund of the Hawai‘i Community Foundation and the Frost Family Foundation.