Sure, Hawaiʻi is 5,000 miles away from Washington, D.C., and a five-hour plane ride from the West Coast, depending on the winds. And sure, the Aloha State is solidly in the Democratic Party camp, so it will not be driving the blue wave that possibly could wash Republican majorities out of the U.S. House and Senate.

But the Nov. 3 midterm elections include a number of notable races and referendums. And, though historically stuck in the minority, Hawaiʻi Republicans think they might be able to pick up a few legislative seats this fall that could give them more sway to influence debate.

Here’s Honolulu Civil Beat’s guide to what’s at stake and why it all matters.

There are hundreds of candidates running for the Hawaiʻi Legislature, two hot races for mayors on Kauaʻi and Maui, elections for an agency that benefits Native Hawaiians and a slew of ballot measures in all four island counties. 

Here are five electoral issues that are top of mind:

You can read the rest of our coverage of Hawaiʻi’s elections here. 

Could Hawaiʻi Turn From Blue To Red?

Ha-ha. Good one.

Hawaiʻi has had only two Republican governors since statehood in 1959 and sent only three Republicans to Congress. And the state Legislature has been controlled by Democrats the entire time, helped in no small part by labor unions and their rank and file.

Still, the GOP has been making some inroads in the Legislature, having picked up several seats in recent elections in both the House and Senate. It’s primarily coming from the west side of Oʻahu where many active and retired military and their families live. The area is near Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam and the headquarters of the United States Pacific Command.

There are also a lot of churches on this part of the island that draw a devoted flock ranging from Protestant to Roman Catholic to nondenominational. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (Mormons) are also a significant part of the population.

It’s not a presidential election year, but Hawaiʻi did vote for Richard Nixon in 1972 and Ronald Reagan in 1984. And Donald Trump and JD Vance took 37 percent of the vote in 2024.

Will Recent Natural Disasters Impact Mayoral Races On Maui And Kauaʻi?

Yes. They already have.

Richard Bissen, the mayor of Maui County (it includes the smaller islands of Lānaʻi, which is largely owned by billionaire Larry Ellison, and Molokaʻi), led the island through the Maui wildfires of August 2023 that killed 102 people and destroyed some 2,200 structures. But his leadership has drawn criticism, including some mystery as to where he actually was and what he was doing in the early hours of the disaster.

Bissen’s challenger, Maui County Councilwoman Yuki Lei Sugimura, argues that the island is not tackling the high cost of living — in particular, a lack of affordable housing. The most controversial post-fire legislation the county has enacted forces the conversion of thousands of short-term rentals into long-term homes. Its urgent passage was driven in part because of all the homes destroyed in the fires.

In Kauaʻi County — which includes the privately owned island of Niʻihau —  Bernard Carvalho Jr., a former Kauaʻi mayor and current county councilman, is pitted against Mel Rapozo, also a councilman who has previously run unsuccessfully for mayor. Hurricane Lowell hit both islands hard in mid-September and they are in recovery mode.

Have Concerns About Government Corruption Influenced Election Outcomes?

One might think so, but the jury (or voters) are still out on that. While a series of political scandals have made multiple headlines over the past decade, it has not led to a demand to “throw the bums out.”

They are not minor incidents.

In 2022 a former Senate majority leader and a former vice chair of the House Finance Committee — two very powerful positions — went to federal prison for taking cash, casino chips, hotel rooms and meals from a local wastewater and cesspool company owner trying to influence the outcome of legislation.

Just this year the sitting lieutenant governor and several former members of Gov. Josh Green’s administration were indicted for criminal conspiracy to commit bribery, bribery by a public servant, falsifying candidate committee reports and obstruction of justice.

All are Democrats. And yet Green and his new running mate are expected to win in a landslide this fall. 

Do Voters Even Bother To Vote For Office Of Hawaiian Affairs?

Some will. Most will probably not. And many likely have no idea what OHA, as it is called, does.

OHA actually has a very important role. It is a quasi-state agency charged with improving the lives of all Native Hawaiians through advocacy, research, community engagement, land management and funding community programs. It has an annual budget of $60 million and assets (including its investment portfolio and real estate holdings) that approach $1 billion.

OHA’s nine trustees are voted into office statewide and have no term limits. And yet many voters leave the ballot choices blank, even though the U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that non-Hawaiians can not only vote for OHA but also run for trustee.

It’s likely that some voters just feel that it’s just not their place to weigh in on OHA, even though some of its revenue comes from the state and Native Hawaiians comprise more than 20% of the state’s population.

When Blank Votes Count As No Votes

Hawaiʻi voters will be asked to weigh in on two constitutional amendment questions this fall. But both are lengthy questions and pretty wonky. Not like, for example, “Should Hawaiʻi legalize marijuana?” 

(Hawaiʻi, by the way, allows for medical marijuana and decriminalizes possession of small amounts.)

What most voters don’t know is that leaving a constitutional amendment ballot question blank actually counts as a no vote. If there are more no votes than yes votes, such an amendment fails to pass.

It’s happened before, and it’s been challenged in court. There was even a bill in the state Legislature to get rid of the “blank means no” vote, but it died.

Constitutional Amendment No. 1 proposes to increase the state Senate’s time frame to consider and act on judicial appointments from 30 days to 60 days for appointments made between April 1 and December 31.

It has yet to prompt any strong political reaction for or against. That is not true for Constitutional Amendment No. 2. 

At least one organization — a political action committee tied to the state’s powerful carpenters union — is running political ads to persuade people to vote yes on the amendment. Constitutional Amendment No. 2 would allow the State Legislature to let Hawaiʻi’s four counties issue equity bonds to fund public improvements on infrastructure projects.

The carpenters union is backing the measure because it would allow city and state officials to develop housing along Honolulu’s Skyline rail system. If it passes, the City and County of Honolulu could fund the work without using existing tax revenue or increasing property taxes.

Unless voters leave their ballots blank, of course.